Is Home-Court Advantage Still a Thing in the NBA?
Welcome to the buzz of the NBA season, folks! As we dive into the **2024-25** basketball action, we’re putting a spotlight on some intriguing trends that have fans, analysts, and players all asking the same question: Is home-court advantage pretty much a myth now? Let’s dig in!
All About Those Numbers
From 2000 to 2013, the home teams in the NBA went for a solid **60% win rate**. Prety impressive, right? However, things started to change in **2014** when the numbers dipped to **58%**. The key factor? Teams began hitting the three-point line more, averaging over **20 attempts per game**. By the end of the last decade, with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the landscape shifted drastically, dropping the home-court advantage to a lowly **54%** during the **2020-21 season** when arenas were mostly silent.
Fast forward to now—this season, it’s still sitting at **54%**. So, what’s up with that? You’d think being at home with the roaring fans would give teams an edge, but a whole new trend has emerged: the effectiveness of the three-point shot.
Three’s Company
It turns out that making more threes is becoming the mantra for winning games. Statistics show that the team that *netted more three-pointers* won roughly **67%** of the time. This has been a consistent trend for the past decade. No matter where you are playing, making those long-range shots is key. Home teams standing at **39-19** and road teams at **36-20** when making more three-pointers shows just how crucial those shots have become.
In truth, being home doesn’t guarantee you’ll make more threes anymore. Back in the past five seasons, home teams won around **71%** of the games in which they made more three-pointers. Not to mention, road teams managed to rack up a **62%** win rate under similar conditions. So, truth be told, home-court advantage still exists, but it’s taken a different form than we once knew it.
Why Does Home Matter?
Interestingly enough, those strong numbers held during the pandemic seasons too. So, it raises the question: Is it really *the crowd* that gives teams the edge? Or is it simply the comfort of being at home, sleeping in their own beds, and familiar with their surroundings? Cue the conversation!
Big Numbers and Little Surprises
Let’s break it down a bit. There are teams out there like the Celtics, Hornets, Warriors, Timberwolves, Bulls, Cavaliers, and Suns, who are shooting their way into contention, averaging **15 or more threes per game**. They’ve dominated with an **18-4** record against teams that barely hit **12 or fewer threes**. It’s a no-brainer: better shooters usually take down those who struggle.
But let’s not forget about teams like Charlotte and Chicago, who, despite being under .500, have pulled off impressive wins against these shooting teams. There’s something to chew on there, right? On the other hand, the beleaguered Brooklyn Nets—they might be struggling, but with their high three-point attempts, they’ve managed surprises against stronger teams, showcasing that the volume of three-point shots is crucial.
What Does This Mean for Gamblers?
If you’re a fan of betting on the games, this all comes down to shrewd strategy. If making more threes boosts your chances of winning, picking a team at home is generally a good idea, right? But here’s the catch—sportsbooks are catching on to this trend as well. So, while you may see that **18-4** record, it’s only **12-10** against the spread for those home teams, meaning your bets need some careful consideration.
As we look at upcoming matchups, like that anticipated game between the Pacers and Hornets, keep your eyes peeled. Indiana is a **seven-point favorite**, but Charlotte’s three-point game could flip the tables.
The Conclusion: Fiction or Fact?
In the end, it seems like home-court advantage isn’t dead, but it’s definitely morphed into something unexpected and more complex. Basketball fans and analysts will have a lot to chew on as the season rolls on. So, keep those fingers crossed and enjoy the wild ride of the NBA as these layers unfold!
